In H1 2025, international commodity markets exhibited distinct sectoral patterns. Energy markets weakened while precious metals strengthened. Base metals delivered mixed results, and agricultural products maintained relative stability. Supply factors increasingly influenced price movements as global economic growth slowed and geopolitical tensions continued.

· Energy: OPEC+ partially lifted production cuts while US output increased. Brent crude fell to around $70, with forecasts suggesting further declines.

· Precious Metals: Geopolitical tensions and central bank diversification drove gold to record highs. Gold futures rose 24.7% while silver futures increased by 24.5%.

· Base Metals: Copper rose over 10% due to supply disruptions in Panama and Congo, combined with increasing demand from the new energy sector, while battery materials faced persistent de-stocking and price weakness.

US tariff policy shocks drove market movements rather than fundamentals, creating volatility comparable to the 2020 pandemic and 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict periods.

China's Markets

· Ferrous Metals: Steel prices declined up to 15%, while iron ore showed strength due to reduced supply and increased demand, reaching record consumption levels.

· Energy: Coal prices trended lower as domestic production expanded and renewable energy generation (wind, solar, hydroelectric) grew.

· New Energy Materials: Lithium markets faced oversupply due to resource growth and new projects, leading to significant price drops. Industrial silicon and polysilicon similarly experienced oversupply and weak demand.

Throughout H1, market pricing logic shifted between macroeconomic factors, industrial dynamics, and geopolitical situations, challenging investors' risk management capabilities.

Source: "A Review of International and Domestic Commodity Markets in the First Half of 2025: 'Volatility' and 'Divergence'" - Economic Daily, Reporter: Zhu Huichun