The latest statistics from the China Gold Association show that in 2023, the country consumed 1,089.69 tons of gold, an increase of 8.78% compared with 2022. Among them, 706.48 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 7.97%; 299.60 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 15.70%.
Everbright futures non-ferrous metals research director Zhan Dapeng believes that from the point of view of physical consumption in 2023, China's gold consumption continues to show an increasing trend. On the sub-item, the growth rate of jewelry consumption has slowed down, firstly because the gold price is at a historical high, and secondly because in the second half of 2023, especially since September, the price fluctuation amplitude has increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment of jewelry consumption has warmed up, but the demand for bullion type of physical goods has grown faster.
China Gold Association vice president and secretary-general Zhang Yongtao analyzed that in 2023 the domestic consumer market recovered to good, gold jewelry processing and retailing enterprises continue to push forward in gold jewelry product design, promote China's gold jewelry consumption demand. Meanwhile, gold bars and gold coins with relatively low premiums are favored by consumers with physical investment needs.
In addition, according to the futures daily reporter, in 2023, the People's Bank of China increased its cumulative gold holdings by 224.88 tons. As of the end of 2023, China's gold reserves were 2,235.41 tons. From November 2022 to December 2023, the People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months.
"The central bank's consecutive actions to increase its holdings also gave investors confidence to buy and hold gold." Zhan Dapeng said, the year of the dragon spring festival is coming, in the process of the recent retracement of the gold price, whether it is the investment market, or the consumer market, there is a "gold fever" phenomenon. Combined with the current macro-environment and global geopolitical pattern, the market's pursuit of gold is difficult to reduce the heat, is expected to 2024 gold jewelry and physical demand will still have a certain growth rate.
Haitong Futures Investment Consulting Department, assistant general manager Gu Jianan said that since 2023, most of the domestic assets poor returns, real estate, stock asset prices have retraced, and with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from austerity to easing expectations, gold performance is strong, especially in the domestic market, the trend is significantly stronger than the international market, in this environment, the domestic part of the investor is more inclined to invest in gold.
From the point of view of the specific investment target, Gu Jia Nan believes that gold belongs to the mature investment products, whether it is gold ETF, or spot gold, etc., the investment cost is relatively consistent, as long as it is a formal channel of investment, the difference is not great. From the point of view of investment space, the probability that the Fed will step into the interest rate reduction cycle in 2024, gold prices have room to rise in the future, but the U.S. economic fundamentals are still resilient, and the rise of gold will not be smooth. Therefore, buy at low price is a better choice.