On January 13-14, the annual meeting of China Chief Economists Forum was held in Shanghai, with the theme of "Restart of cycle or reshape of rules? --the Logic of Global Economic Recovery". Zhu Bin, Chief Economist of Nanhua Futures, attended and delivered a speech.

Zhu Bin said, we all hope that the CPI index in 2024 can turn positive, prices of hog is a very important indicator of China CPI. Will 2024 be a hog cycle? From the cycle point of view next year pig cycle has arrived. From a cycle perspective the 2024 hog cycle is here. The hog cycle is usually once every 3 years, the last one was in 2021, the previous one in 2018, theoretically the price of hog should rise in 2024, but from his analysis, unfortunately this probability is not high.

Why? The cycle is broken, the previous hog cycle was an era of free competition, once this price fell, all the relevant enterprises are losing money, theoretically hog production capacity should be massively withdrawn. But our capacity is still very high because we entered the industrialization era, resulting in a lengthening of the hog cycle. The anticipators of the market gave a very interesting price, and many investors had to pay for this wrong expectation.

In addition, Zhu Bin also commented on the trend of gold. He pointed out that gold is now fundamentally bad, but look down the fundamentals will be better, interest rates will go down, the dollar will also go down, leading to the probability of gold will rise. Now this price can be stabilized is very remarkable, indicating that 2024 is friendly to gold external factors.